Guides
Ghost kitchen inventory planning framework
A variable-based framework for ghost kitchen inventory planning: forecast orders, recipe quantities, delivery intervals, and safety margins shape item pars.
What to take away
- The answer is a par per item, derived from forecast orders and the recipe, not from what fits in the walk-in.
- The two costs to balance are waste, which costs the item, and sell-out at peak, which costs orders and ratings across the listing. For most delivery kitchens the second is larger.
- Delivery interval and lead time set the base; a safety margin sized to the item's sell-out cost sets the rest.
- Packaging gets the same arithmetic.
- Re-derive pars whenever the forecast changesnew brand, new radius, new hours.
No figure on this page is a quantity, because quantities come from your orders and your recipes. This ghost kitchen inventory planning framework sets out the arithmetic in named variables so you can put your own numbers in and get a par per item in an afternoon.
The variables
For one item, say the protein in your best-selling dish:
Par to order quantity
- q: recipe quantity per portion
- O: forecast orders per day
- U = q × O: daily usage
- T: delivery interval plus lead time
- S: safety days
- P = U × (T + S): par in cooking units
- Convert to packs, round up
Let U be forecast daily usage in cooking units: forecast portions per day multiplied by the recipe quantity per portion. Let T be the coverage period in days—scheduled delivery interval plus supplier lead time—and S be safety-stock days. Then P = U × (T + S), in cooking units. To calculate a par, derive U from your forecast and recipe, then multiply it by the combined delivery, lead-time, and safety days.
Define inventory position as usable on-hand stock plus confirmed incoming stock, less stock already committed. Let L be supplier lead time in days; the reorder point is R = U × (L + S). Reorder when inventory position reaches or falls below R, and order enough to restore the position to P: P minus inventory position, never below zero. Convert that quantity to purchase units with the pack size from the item master and round up to whole packs. On a scheduled review cycle, T includes the interval between orders, so P covers demand through the next delivery plus S.
Choosing S, the safety margin
S is where the two costs meet.
Choosing S: sell-out vs waste
High S
- Cost driver
- Sell-out cost X
- Item type
- Signature protein
- Shelf life
- Acceptable
- Dish usage
- Many dishes
- Action
- Hold more S
Low S
- Cost driver
- Waste cost W
- Item type
- Perishable garnish
- Shelf life
- Short
- Dish usage
- One dish
- Action
- Hold less S
- Sell-out cost per day, Xthe contribution lost from the orders that would have been placed for dishes using this item during the hours it is unavailable, plus a share of the rating damage to the whole listing. For a best seller, X is large.
- Waste cost, Wthe item's cost per cooking unit times the units likely to spoil if held S days longer than needed.
Hold more S where X is large relative to W (a signature protein with acceptable shelf life) and less where W dominates (a perishable garnish used in one dish). Write S per item in the item master with the reason, so the next person does not reset it by instinct.
Packaging uses the same arithmetic
For a container, q is one per portion of the dishes that ship in it, and O is the forecast orders for those dishes. T is the packaging distributor's delivery interval plus lead time on that exact container.
Packaging par checklist
- q: one container per portion
- O: forecast orders for those dishes
- T: distributor interval plus lead time
- Set S high
- Avoid untested containers
- Keep packaging in item master
Set S high. A container sell-out means shipping in an untested container or marking every dish that uses it unavailable.
The inventory and sourcing guide explains why packaging belongs in the item master beside food.
Forecasting O honestly
- Use the same weekday and the same hour range, because delivery demand by hour is the shape of the business.
- Adjust for known eventsa promotion, a holiday, a campus break if the radius is a university district.
- When a dish is new, forecast from the sealed-transit test week's orders and hold S higher until two ordinary weeks exist.
- When the radius or the hours change, the forecast changes; re-derive. The expansion and market guide treats that re-derivation as a gate before growth.
- Promotions raise O for their duration and then drop it; the marketing and growth guide covers matching promotion to capacity, and inventory is part of capacity.
Where the supply routes change T
| Route | Effect on T | Effect on S |
|---|---|---|
| Broadline distributor, scheduled truck | T is the interval between scheduled days plus order cutoff | S can be modest if the truck is reliable |
| Cash-and-carry top-up | T can be one day, at the cost of someone's time | S can be small for items you can fetch |
| Specialty or direct producer | T often longer and less flexible | S higher for a defining ingredient, and a second source held |
| Facility purchasing program | T set by the facility's schedule | S depends on how the facility handles shorts |
Examples of broadline distributors include Sysco, US Foods, and Performance Food Group; cash-and-carry examples include Restaurant Depot and Costco Business Center. These are examples, not a claim about local availability or delivery terms. Use each supplier's actual schedule, cutoff, and lead time to set T.
Where the health authority sets limits
In the United States, the inspecting authority is generally the state or local health department, or another food regulatory agency responsible for your permit; check the permit to identify yours. That agency enforces the food code adopted in your jurisdiction, which may differ from the FDA model Food Code. Its provisions on shelf life and date marking, cold and hot holding, and holding times bound how much perishable stock P can represent.
The FDA's model Food Code is a reference that state and local authorities may adapt; it is not automatically the code your kitchen must follow. The FDA's directory of state retail food codes and agencies can help identify the code and regulator for your jurisdiction.
The licensing and compliance guide covers what else that conversation includes.
Checking the pars against reality
At month end, compare purchases from invoices, counts, and usage from recipe quantities times orders on the platform statements. The Internal Revenue Service's page on what records a business should keep describes a system that clearly shows income and expenses with supporting documents. The same invoices and statements are what make the par check possible.
Usage persistently above U means O was low; loss above a small allowance means a station problem. The person who counts needs to know the arithmetic well enough to spot which. The hiring and training guide puts par logic in the shift lead's onboarding.
Common questions
How much inventory should a ghost kitchen hold?
P per item, from U × (T + S) with your own recipe quantities, forecast, and delivery interval. No figure without those inputs applies to you.
Is it better to over-order or under-order?
For a best seller with acceptable shelf life, over-order slightly; sell-out at peak costs more than the waste. For a perishable used in one dish, under-order and mark the dish unavailable when it runs out.
How often should pars change?
Whenever the forecast changes: new dish, new brand, new radius, new hours, a promotion. At least monthly at the reconciliation.
What if my supplier's interval is long?
Hold a higher S for the items that define a dish, and keep a second source at a small par. A long T with a single source is the inventory version of a single point of failure.
